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Market Outlook of Cold Rolled Varieties in 2021

1. Stable production capacity

As of the end of 2020, the effective production capacity of cold rolling mills nationwide was 14.2 million tons, with 240 production lines; according to the region, East China and North China accounted for 61%; according to the nature of the enterprise, state-owned enterprises accounted for 61%. The production capacity will be stable in 2021, and there is no plan to increase production capacity. In addition, it plans to add two new equipment with a total capacity of 4.5 million tons in 2022. The time is to be determined.

2. The actual output has increased and the proportion of variety steel is inclined

Affected by the actual downstream demand preferences and the profitable production and sales concept of steel mills, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate for the whole year of 2021 will remain high; in the pursuit of profit in 2021, it is expected that the annual average capacity utilization rate will remain around 79.5%; according to manufacturing As an important goal for the development of the industry from quantity to quality, the downstream use of steel is gradually shifting from general materials to varieties of steel. Therefore, in the next few years, the proportion of cold-rolled varieties of steel will become higher and higher.

On the whole, supply and demand are tightly balanced, prices are high before and after low, and price highs are supported by replenishment and manufacturing policies.

The capacity utilization rate in 2021 will increase by about 2%-2.5%; the main downstream demand is stable and strong, the demand for substrates is increasing, and the domestic supply and demand are tightly balanced. The annual average price increase is expected to be 150-200 yuan/ton. In summary, the high demand in the first half of 2021 will continue in the fourth quarter of 2020, and the cold-rolled spot price in 2021 will show a situation of high before and low.

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