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Monthly terminal inventory analysis report in November

1. Overview of the manufacturing boom

According to the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI index in November was 52.1%. It rebounded after a slight weakening due to seasonal factors last month. It was 0.7 percentage points higher than the PMI index in October. The expansion range indicates that the manufacturing industry has continued to rebound in the context of the steady recovery of the domestic economy.

2. Consumption recovery continues

In October 2020, consumption continued to pick up. The total retail sales of consumer goods was 3,857.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.0 percentage point higher than the previous month. Among them, merchandise retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the 4.1% in September 2020; catering retail revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, achieving a positive year-on-year change for the first time during the year.

3. The scale of social financing remains high

The increase in social financing in October was RMB 1,420 billion, an increase of RMB 549.3 billion year-on-year. At the end of October, the stock of social financing was 281.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. From January to October 2020, the cumulative increase in social financing is approximately 31.04 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the same period last year. From the perspective of the growth rate of sub-items, in addition to the year-on-year decline in entrusted loans and trust loans, RMB loans, corporate bonds, and government bonds issued to the real economy have all increased year-on-year, and the domestic real economy's financing needs have improved significantly.

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