Supply: The daily average molten iron continued to be high. The profit rate of 247 steel mills remained stable at 59.31% this week, but the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36% from last week, but still at an absolute high level. Looking forward to July, as the off-season effect of steel demand gradually emerges and steel mills usher in mid-year maintenance, it is expected that the intensity of production reduction and maintenance will be further increased.

Supply: This week, the output of hot-rolled coil increased by 9,000 tons to 3.2814 million tons. This week, the output of hot-rolled coil increased slightly from the previous month. The overall output did not change much, and the current output is at a relatively high level.

Demand: This week's hot-rolled coil demand fell by 18,800 tons compared with last week. At present, the demand side continues to be weak, and the demand for building materials is seriously dragged down by the real estate and infrastructure industries. As the off-season deepens, the demand in July will continue to face signs of decline.

Demand: From June 1 to 30, the national passenger car market retailed 2.032 million vehicles, up 15% year-on-year from the same period in June last year, up 5% from the previous month, and the cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.849 million vehicles, up 10% year-on-year; From June 1 to 30, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 2.473 million vehicles, up 14% year-on-year from the same period in June last year, up 7% from the previous month, and the cumulative wholesale sales this year reached 13.263 million vehicles, up 12% year-on-year. As the country's anti-involutionary work continues to advance, the effect of promoting the improvement of industry profits is gradually emerging, and it is expected that the overall situation of the automobile industry will continue to be stable and improve in the future.

Demand: According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, as of June 30, 27% of the countries have introduced 34 policies to loosen up the property market, among which housing provident fund policies in many places have been further optimized, including further broadening the use scenarios, breaking down regional barriers, and expanding the coverage of the population. Some cities have extended the relevant loosening policy period. However, last week (June 23-June 29), the total transaction (contracted) area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 3.1082 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 50.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%. During the same period, the total transaction (contracted) area of second-hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.3109 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 4.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%. Although the real estate industry policies continue to be implemented, they still drag down the demand for steel.

Inventory: The total inventory of hot-rolled coils rebounded month-on-month. As production increased and terminal manufacturing production entered the off-season, the total inventory of hot-rolled coils continued to accumulate.

Inventory view:

Hot coil broke through the consolidation range on Wednesday and crossed the daily 60-day 

moving average. The technical side began to turn to an upward trend, and it was strong in 

the short term. 

However, the general trend direction has not yet effectively turned to bullish. After waiting for 

the daily level adjustment, if it breaks upward again, it means that it has begun to move in an 

upward trend.

Subsequent view:

The rise of the black sector in the past two days is related to two pieces of news in the market 

on July 1, one is the restriction in Tangshan area, and the other is the governance of internal 

volume. 

Market sentiment has obviously warmed up due to the news. In the short term, the reduction 

in supply will support steel prices and push prices up, but the weak demand side will still limit 

the room for steel prices to rise; in the medium and long term, the overall weak situation of 

terminal demand is unlikely to improve much. After the market excitement cools down, steel 

prices may fall again.